TOM Duals of the Week 11.30.2011

This week we look at two solid duals. This year has already had some surprising moments and we expect more as the season moves along.

There are numerous good match-ups this week including the Cliff Keen in Vegas.

In the first dual, we are previewing a clash in the Big 10 when Iowa meets Illinois. It is our first chance to see Iowa against some top-level competition.

The second dual will feature two national powers as Minnesota continues their brutal early schedule when they travel to Oklahoma State. This one is loaded with great match-ups.

#1 Iowa vs. #6 Illinois
(Line-ups may change) – Based on TOM rankings

Projected Line-up
125: #1 Matt McDonough vs. #8 Jesse Delgado
133: #3 Tony Ramos vs. #2 BJ Futrell
141: #3 Montel Marion vs. Tucker Armstrong
149: Jacob Ballweg vs. #13 Eric Terrazas
157: #2 Derek St. John vs. #12 Jackson Morse
165: #18 Mike Evans vs. Conrad Polz or Kyle Dooley
174: #7 Ethen Lofthouse vs. #5 Jordan Blanton
184: Jeremy Fahler vs. Tony Dallago
197: Tomas Lira vs. #15 Mario Gonzalez
285: #7 Bobby Telford vs. Pat Walker

Well, this one is loaded. We have 13 ranked wrestlers scheduled to compete. Iowa is the heavy favorite to win this dual, but it is early in the year and Illinois has been wrestling pretty well so far. They are coming off a nice win over Lehigh and should be fired up for this early season dual.

Iowa is loaded, but not at full strength just yet. It does not sound like Gambrall will be back for this one. Iowa will need some good performances at 149, 184 and 197. With that said, this line-up has some serious firepower.

Illinois has quietly been getting better and has shown it so far this year. They took Lehigh out last week and boast a 6-0 record coming into this dual. They will need some help or an upset in this one. The Illini do have a few guys who could do just that.

The Match-ups

125: McDonough is the heavy favorite here. He will get his first real test on the year with Delgado. We are high on this freshman and he has wrestled well so far this year. McDonough posted two pins and a major decision last week. Delgado is 10-1 and all of his wins have been by bonus. His only loss came at the hands of second ranked Bedeloyn of Kent State. With all that said, we see McDonough winning by major.

133: This should be the feature match of the dual as number two and three square off. Ramos who loss his wrestle-off to Clark looked very sharp last weekend. Futrell on the other hand also looked very good taking Oliver to the brink at the All-Star match. These guys split last season with Ramos winning the most recent. We fully expect a high scoring affair in this one. In a barnburner, we have Futrell winning a close one.

141: Marion is the guy here. He will face the young Armstrong. We expect Marion to be a man on a mission this season. He looked very sharp last week. Armstrong has been taking his lumps and is coming of an 0-2 performance in his last action. Look for Marion to open this one up. Marion by Major and maybe technical fall.

149: Terrazas should be considered the favorite here. Ballweg has yet to show what Iowa fans were hoping for out of him. He went 1-2 last week. Terrazas did suffer an early season loss a few weeks ago, but has been solid since. This could be closer than Illinois fans would like, but we could also see Terrazas getting close to a major. We have Terrazas winning by 3-4 points.

157: This could be a decent match. St. John is the clear favorite, but he should face a decent test in Morse. He has majored everyone in duals with the exception of his loss to Flemming from Clarion. St. John looked good last week. We expect there to be some points scored in this one by both guys. We have St. John winning a decision.

165: Evans gets his chance to get his feet wet in the Big 10. He is our favorite no matter who Illinois sends out. If Polz is healthy, the match will be far closer than if Dooley gets the nod. Dooley would be a 149 wrestling up. Evans dominated last week. Look for him to have a good day. We have him winning a decision or Major against Polz, a possible fall if he faces Dooley.

174: This would be the second feature match of the night. Blanton had looked great up until his loss in an exhibition match at the All-Star Classic. Iowa fans are hoping that Lofthouse can turn that corner this year. Lofthouse dropped a match to Pat Wright who is redshirting for Missouri this year. This should be a close one-point kind of match. We have Blanton winning something like 3-2.

184: With Gambrall most likely out of this one, we should see Fahler for the Hawkeyes. He has wrestled well this year and has had only one loss so far. Dallago does have three losses on the season. One coming at the hands of Hamlin who is ranked first. This is a key match for the Illini. In a back and forth match we have Dallago winning. With that said, we will not be surprised to see Fahler reverse that.

197: Gonzales should be your favorite in this match. He only has one loss on the year and that was to Kennedy of Lehigh. Lira has been ok this year, but Iowa will need more from him as the season goes on. Look for Gonzales to control this one and earn the decision.

Heavyweight: Iowa fans are high on Telford and rightfully so. He is a dynamic heavyweight that can score points. He will get a very good test this week against Walker. Walker has been inconsistent this year so far. He started the season with a rough tournament, but has since bounced back some. We expect Telford to score some points in this one and earn a comfortable decision.

The key matches in this dual will be 133, 174 and 184. Iowa could win all three or lose all three. If Iowa wins then this gets out of hand, if Illinois wins this, it gets interesting and comes down to bonus which Iowa is the clear favorite in getting. We are predicting below, but this could be a much bigger spread depending on how those three matches go.

TOM’S Prediction

Iowa- 18
Illinois – 15

#4 Minnesota vs. #3 Oklahoma State
(Line-ups may change)- Based on TOM rankings

Projected Line-up
125: #2 Zach Sanders vs. #12 Ladd Rupp or Morrison
133: #6 David Thorn vs. #1 Jordan Oliver
141: #13 Nick Dardanes vs. #7 Josh Kindig
149: #17 Dylan Ness vs. #2 Jamal Parks
157: Alec Ortiz vs. #8 Albert White
165: #9 Cody Yohn vs. #17 Dallas Bailey
174: Steven Avalos vs. Chris McNeil
184: #4 Kevin Steinhaus vs. #9 Chris Perry
197: #3 Sonny Yohn vs. #6 Cayle Byers
285: #2 Tony Nelson vs. #3 Alan Gelogaev

We will see 18 nationally ranked wrestlers in this one. That is about as good as it gets from a fans perspective. Minnesota has already knocked off the previous number two team in Penn State. This will be the Cowboys first big test of the year. You have to wonder if having two big duals under their belt helps Minnesota.

If Storley returns for Minnesota that will be a big boost for them. Oklahoma State is at full strength. There are numerous swing matches in this one, but without Storley, the Cowboys will have an advantage.

The Match-ups

125: Sanders has looked solid so far this year. The Cowboys seem to be trying to figure out who the guy will be at this weight. Logic would suggest that Morrison goes this weekend. He has a win over Sanders and Rupp is coming off a tough loss to Finch. Last year Morrison was able to suppress Sander’s offense. Either way we see Sanders winning a decision in this one.

133: If you had asked us a few weeks ago, we would have said Oliver would dominate this match. After last week, we are not so sure he blows Thorn out here. We still see him as the clear favorite, but if he struggles with his conditioning as he did last week, Thorn can make this interesting. Thorn will need to wrestle with a bit more discipline against Oliver than he does with most. His wide-open style could cause him problems with a person like Oliver. Oliver lives off people coming at him hard and setting up his low-level leg attacks. In what should be a real fun match, we have Oliver winning by decision.

141: Another great match-up between some talented young guys. Kindig seems to be finding his stride this year. Dardanes has been impressive with the exception of his match at Cornell. That is to be expected with freshman. We expect that most of this match takes place on their feet and is a real shoot out. Expect them to trade takedowns. Conditioning should play a real factor in this one. We are going with Kindig, but really consider this one a pick’em.

149: Parks is looking to make this the year he reaches the top. He has all the tools to do it, but it is a matter of him opening up. He tends to let guys hang in matches and do enough to get the win. However, when you do that you are also allowing your opponent to get right back into the match. Ness will struggle with Parks quick leg attacks. He has to be able to fend shots off before people get too deep on him. If he can do this, he will have his chances to score some points. In the end, we think Parks will be too much for Ness on his feet. Parks by decision.

157: Alec Ortiz will finally get to wrestle at his normal weight class. It is somewhat hard to decide how he will do as he has not wrestled much at this weight. White is the guy this year and at his correct weight. White is another guy who has yet to realize his full potential. White also tends to keep matches close. We think this will be a rather low scoring match. Look for White to win here.

165: We think that Yohn has actually been wrestling very well this year. We are looking past the Taylor match, but other than that, he has looked solid. Last week he really opened up his offense. If he does that against Bailey he should see some good results. Bailey has been a bit up and down this year. He is solid and has the potential to be a good one. We expect this one to be close, but we see Yohn winning.

174: McNeil has been good. He is coming off a loss from last week, to Spangler who is no slouch. Storley is out so we will see Avalos. McNeil should have the upper hand here.

184: This should be a good match, these two are familiar with each other. They met three times last season with Steinhaus winning two of the three. Both are coming off wins. Perry had an impressive win over Beard last week and Steinhaus knocked off the defending National Champion. We think that Steinhaus comes away with his third straight win over Perry.

197: We think this will be another pick’em match-up. Yohn is ranked higher and has wrestled decent, but not spectacular so far. Byers was a big pick-up for the Cowboys in the off-season. He has been solid so far this year. This should be very close. Yohn will need to open his offense up as he did at the end of his last match. Riding time could become a factor in this one as well. We have Byers winning a close one.

Heavyweight: Sounds like a broken record, but this is another pick-em. They are ranked second and third and should end this thing with a bang. Nelson has wrestled as advertised so far this year and Gelogaev has done the same. This will be an interesting match-up in style. Gelogaev likes to go up top and look for throws and such. Nelson keeps great position and stays low for a heavyweight. We think Nelson attacks the legs and gets the key takedown. We also think Nelson may be able to ride Gelogaev. Nelson by decision.

TOM’S Prediction

Oklahoma State – 16
Minnesota – 12