TOM Dual of the Week – 1.20.2012

This week we are only focusing on one dual and it is a big one. Last year Iowa surprised many by taking Penn State down. This year most think it is to close to call. On paper, Penn State is the likely favorite. However, we will break this one down and see what we come up with after.

Numerous big match-ups should make this one an instant classic. One big question is whether Derek St. John will be a go for Iowa. Currently neither school has him listed as a possible starter, so we will break this down without him in the line-up.

#2 Iowa vs. #3 Penn State
(Line-ups may change) – Based on TOM rankings

Projected Line-up

125: #2 Matt McDonough vs. #7 Nico Megaludis
133: #2 Tony Ramos vs. Frank Martelloti
141: #5 Montel Marion vs. Brian Pearsall
149: #16 Mike Kelly vs. #1 Frank Molinaro
157: Nick Moore   vs. #6 Dylan Alton
165: #7 Mike Evans vs. #1 David Taylor
174: #8 Ethan Lofthouse vs. #1 Ed Ruth
184: #19 Vinnie Wagner or  Jeremy Fahler vs. #3 Quentin Wright
197: Grant Gambrall vs. #16 Morgan McIntosh
285: #10 Bobby Telford vs. #6 Cameron Wade

Well, this one is loaded. We have 15 ranked and 2 top ranked wrestlers scheduled to compete. The place is sold out and should be a wild atmosphere.

Iowa is only favored in three of the weights, which tells us that there will need to be some upsets and bonus for them to pull this one out. However, as we learned last year, you should never count the Hawkeyes out of anything.

Penn State has been solid and is right there in the hunt for their second straight national title. They have the big firepower, but will need more from some of their lesser unknowns.

The Match-ups

125: McDonough is the heavy favorite here. He seems to be right back on track, since his loss and has been wrestling well. His size may be the biggest factor in this match. Iowa will need him to get bonus in this one. Megaludis is having a good year for a true freshman and has worked his way up the rankings. He recently knocked off a tough Levi Mele from Northwestern. Bonus is not a guarantee in this one, but we do think McDonough gets them. McDonough by Major.

133: Ramos is a heavy favorite here, we know Penn State fans are high on Martelloti, but we have not seen anything from him this year that makes us think he will pull the upset here. Ramos has been rather impressive and we expect him to continue that. As we stated earlier Iowa will need all the help they can get and bonus will be the goal here. Ramos wins by bonus.

141: Marion will make Iowa the favorite in the third straight match. After this, things start to look rough for the Hawkeyes. Marion will need to do something he does not always do and that is he needs bonus here. Pearsall has been ok, but not wrestling at the level as Marion. Marion should push the pace here and look to score a bunch late. Marion by major.

149: Molinaro is the man at 149. He has really impressed us so far this year. He seems to be wrestling at an even higher level then he had last year. He appears to be finishing matches stronger. Kelly has showed some promise at a weight the Hawks were looking for help. However, Molinaro will most likely be too much for the young Hawkeye. Molinaro wins a decision.

157:  With St. John out of this one, Alton is the clear favorite. Alton has beaten those he is supposed to and dropped some losses to those ranked ahead of him. Moore has been ok but not great.  We do think this may be closer then some would expect, but in the end, we see Alton winning by decision.

165: Taylor has pretty much dominated everyone he has come across this year. He is 17-0 and 16 of those matches resulted in bonus points. Sounds like a tough hill to climb for Evans. Now Evans is coming off a solid week. He was able to knock of Kokesh from Nebraska.  This may be a great match. We see Taylor being held to his second decision on the year and winning.

174: Ruth has shown that he can open up more this season and that is not great news for his opponents. He brings his perfect record into this one and against one of the better guys he has faced this year. Lofthouse has been solid this season, but still struggles at times to finish his shots. Against Ruth that could become problematic. Ruth wins could get bonus.

184: Wright seems to be wrestling at the level most expected him to this year. When he opens up, he is down right dangerous. Wagner has done pretty well in his role. Wright will be too much for either wrestler the Hawkeyes put out. Wright by decision.

197: Now this is one of the more interesting match-ups of the night. We really do think the dual comes down to this and heavyweight. On paper, McIntosh is the favorite. Nevertheless, let us look at his record more. He has beaten the guys we would have expected, but his most significant win is over a decent Schoen of Northwestern. Gambrall was great last year but since his jump to 197 he has been less the impressive. We see this as a toss-up. In a close match, we have McIntosh winning this one.

Heavyweight: Wade just beat McMullin of Northwestern who Telford just lost too. Wade is doing about as well as we would have expected beating those ranked below him and losing to those above him. Telford is coming off a two-loss weekend. On paper, we have to consider Wade the favorite here. In our upset pick of the night, we have Telford winning.

The key matches in this dual will be 174, 197, HWT. If Iowa can hold off a major at 174, it would tie the dual in our eyes. In addition, if Iowa can sweep the last two weights they win. Should be a ton of fun!

TOM’S Prediction

Penn State- 16
Iowa – 15